Political Panorama Issue No 15
The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), once hailed as a third-force alternative to Nigeria’s dominant parties, is in crisis.
At the heart of the crisis is Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, former Governor of Kano State and the Party’s 2023 presidential candidate.
The internal turmoil, pitting Kwankwaso’s faction against that of the party’s founder, Dr. Boniface Aniebonam, is not just a leadership dispute. It is a cautionary tale of how fragile political institutions in Nigeria are when personalities override processes.
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| Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso NNPP 2023 Presidential Candidate |
A Brief Recap of the NNPP Crisis
Founded
in 2002 by Dr. Aniebonam, the NNPP lingered on the periphery of Nigerian
politics until Kwankwaso’s entry, buoyed by the mobilizing power of the
Kwankwasiyya Movement. The resulting surge in popularity gave the NNPP real
electoral traction, winning Kano State and polling over 1.4 million votes in
the 2023 presidential election (INEC, 2023).
However,
cracks soon emerged. Kwankwaso’s camp allegedly altered the party’s
constitution, logo, and structures without the requisite National Executive
Council (NEC) consensus, prompting Aniebonam and other founding members to
accuse him of hijacking the party. The back-and-forth suspensions and court
actions that followed have left the party rudderless and discredited.
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| Dr. Boniface Aniebonam NNPP Founder |
Implications for Nigerian Democracy
The NNPP crisis exemplifies the fragility of internal democratic structures within Nigerian political parties. The absence of transparent decision-making processes and the dominance of individual interests over collective goals undermine the very essence of democratic participation. The centralization of power around influential figures like Kwankwaso detracts from institutional development. When political parties revolve around individuals rather than ideologies or policies, it hampers the growth of robust democratic institutions.
Internal party conflicts can spill over into the broader political arena, affecting governance and public trust. The NNPP's turmoil, especially in Kano State where it holds significant influence, has the potential to destabilize regional politics and governance.
The crisis has prompted discussions about potential defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Such moves, often driven by personal ambitions rather than ideological alignment, further dilute the political landscape and hinder the development of a credible opposition.
The Defection Dilemma: Kwankwaso and
the APC Temptation
Rumors
of Kwankwaso’s imminent defection to the APC, fueled by his visible engagements
with the Tinubu administration at the commencement of the regime and thereafter, are a moral and political quagmire. If he
defects, he not only betrays the ideological claim of the NNPP as a force for
democratic renewal but also confirms a troubling trend in Nigerian politics which is, opposition platforms being used merely as bargaining chips for political
appointments.
Such
a move would have dire implications such as loss of political integrity.
Kwankwaso’s personal brand, built on grassroots mobilization, modesty, and a
progressive ethos will be fundamentally undermined if he joins the APC, a party
he had fiercely criticized. This credibility erosion could alienate his
northern base and derail any future national ambitions. Also, collapse of the
NNPP as a viable opposition becomes imminent. The NNPP was viewed by many as a
vessel for political inclusivity and a credible alternative to the status quo,
but the defection will automatically alter this perception by the public. Kwankwaso’s
defection would gut the party’s relevance and validate claims that it was
always a “self-serving vehicle,” not a genuine platform for reform. With the
PDP also in disarray, the NNPP was in a position to co-lead a broad-based
democratic opposition front. Defection weakens this prospect. As Okoosi-Simbine
(2024) warned, Nigeria’s democracy is in danger if opposition parties cannot
unite behind common principles, even if they differ in personalities. Kwankwaso’s
possible absorption into the APC raises concerns about the shrinking space for
principled dissent. As observed by political economist Jibo Ibrahim, “Once
opposition leaders are co-opted into the ruling class, the notion of checks and
balances collapses” (Ibrahim, 2022, African Affairs).
EFCC Specter and the Stench of
Political Dealings
There’s
also the uncomfortable but recurring pattern in Nigerian politics where
strategic defections to the ruling party precede the quieting or outright
abandonment of corruption investigations. Many in the public speculate that
such moves are often less about ideology and more about escaping the scrutiny
of agencies like the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
If
the Kwankwaso defection materializes, critics would not be unjustified in
seeing it as another case of elite immunity shopping. While no public evidence
currently indicts him, the pattern of defections tied to prosecutorial reprieve
has been noted in previous cases, such as those of Godswill Akpabio, Orji Uzor
Kalu, Sheriff Oborevwori, and his predecessor and political mentor, Ifeanyi
Okowa.
Saving the NNPP and the Opposition
Spirit
To
navigate this crisis and fortify Nigeria's democratic framework, all
stakeholders must commit to the rule of law. Both factions should respect the
NNPP's constitutional provisions, ensuring that decisions are made through
established channels and with broad consensus. Bodies like the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) should enforce compliance with legal
standards, ensuring that political parties operate within the bounds of the
law.
To
avoid a total collapse, the NNPP must return to its roots or risk becoming a
historical footnote. For the party to survive and remain credible, Kwankwaso
must subject himself to the rule of law and party supremacy, recognizing that
leadership in a political party cannot be rooted in personalized power. Dr.
Aniebonam and the founding members must also be willing to open the doors of
reconciliation, based on a clear reaffirmation of internal democracy and
transparency. Civil society and INEC in particular, must demand stricter
regulations on how party constitutions are changed, ensuring that no faction or
figure can rewrite foundational documents for personal gain. The larger opposition
family, that is, PDP, Labour Party, NNPP, and others must urgently intensify the coalition dialogue to avoid fragmentation ahead of 2027. A fractured opposition
is a gift to an already dominant APC.
From the Ashes or Into
the Abyss?
The
NNPP crisis is more than an internal feud. It is a referendum on what kind of
democracy Nigerians want. Do we want personality cults parading as parties, or
institutions that respect process, law, and collective vision? The Party's
internal strife serves as a microcosm of the broader challenges facing Nigerian
democracy. It highlights the urgent need for political parties to prioritize
internal democracy, institutional integrity, and the rule of law. Only by
addressing these foundational issues can Nigeria hope to build a resilient and
inclusive democratic system that truly represents the will of its people.
If
Senator Kwankwaso still sees himself as a statesman, not a power-hungry actor,
he must rise above personal interests and lead by example. Defecting to the APC
would be a betrayal, not just of his followers, but of the broader democratic
cause.
Democracy
in Nigeria does not need more deals in smoky rooms. It needs integrity,
patience, and a commitment to the collective will.
Kwankwaso’s strategic denial as a silent signal in the 2027 power game
As the country lumbers toward the general
election in 2027, the political landscape is bristling with
realignments, quiet negotiations, and strategic obfuscations. Rabiu Musa
Kwankwaso, during the weekend once again became the focal point in the widening cracks and
alignments shaping the road ahead. Reports of his rejection of defection to the
All Progressives Congress (APC) set the political class abuzz. His denial of authorizing any such story adds a nuanced dimension to
the unfolding drama. The report quoted Kwankwanso allegedly saying
“I cannot in good conscience return
to a party whose ideology is now based on personal interest, betrayal of the
masses, and governance by propaganda. As far as I am concerned, the APC has
lost moral ground and historical relevance in rescuing Nigeria from its many
woes….That is why I am working closely with like-minded patriots across the country
to form a broad-based political movement that will challenge the status quo in
2027...”.
In a swift and emphatic denial, Kwankwaso described the purported statement as “false,
mischievous and politically misleading.” He disavowed any association with the
unsigned press release circulating in his name and warned against fake news,
reaffirming that only communications from his official channels should be
trusted (The Cable, 2025; Daily Trust, 2025). He labeled the circulated
statement as “false” and “political mischief,” clearly designed to manipulate
the public and distort the political terrain. The author of the fake message,
one Ibrahim Rabiu, thereafter retracted the post, acknowledging it was not sanctioned.
But this denial itself is loaded with implications. In Nigeria’s political theatre, what is not said often matters as much as what is said. Kwankwaso’s refusal to directly and definitively close the door to an APC rapprochement suggests a calculated ambiguity. This is not merely damage control. It is strategic posturing. This firm, yet tactfully worded denial revealed not just the prevalence of misinformation in Nigeria’s fluid political environment, but also the calculated caution practiced by political heavyweights positioning for 2027. It points to a broader pattern of strategic ambiguity, where silence and denials serve as placeholders in a game of leverage and anticipation. Kwankwaso's vagueness leave open multiple possibilities. These include:
- Leverage over potential partners in both the APC and opposition coalitions.
- Maintaining grassroots loyalty by not confirming alignment with unpopular power centers too early.
- Bargaining space in case the emerging opposition coalition fails to accommodate his presidential ambitions.
In this light,
Kwankwaso’s denial of the story, should not be taken as a firm rejection of the APC. Rather,
it is a placeholder, a political tool to buy time, measure the winds, and
negotiate from a position of perceived neutrality.
Ambiguity as Strategy: Reading Between the Lines
In Nigerian political culture, denial
often masks deliberation. As scholars such as Rotimi Suberu (2007) and Ayo
Olukotun (2017) have noted, the country’s political elite frequently operate
through informal backchannels, engaging in elite consensus-building before any
public declarations are made. Denials serve to preserve bargaining space, avoid
premature backlash, and control the timing of public positioning.
Kwankwaso’s denial fits this mold. It
neither confirms allegiance to the opposition coalition nor forecloses a
possible return to the ruling party. In fact, his body language and consistent
engagement with key figures across party lines including periodic consultations
with PDP stalwarts and former political allies in the APC indicate that he remains
politically agile. This echoes the strategic indecisiveness often displayed by
prominent Nigerian politicians during transitional periods or what a secondary school mate and friend euphemistically refers to as “political transfer window”.
Implications for the Opposition and the APC
Kwankwaso's equivocation poses
challenges and opportunities on both sides of Nigeria’s political divide. For
the APC, a confirmed defection would bolster the party’s Northern flank particularly
in Kano, the second-largest voting bloc in Nigeria. It would also enhance their
legitimacy among voters increasingly concerned about cohesion and Northern
representation within the Tinubu-led administration.
For the proposed opposition
coalition, Kwankwaso’s potential neutrality or departure represents a critical
variable. His 1.4 million votes in the 2023 presidential election under the
NNPP (INEC, 2023) showed his influence remains formidable. Any opposition
victory would likely depend on consolidating these blocs.
Thus, Kwankwaso’s silence forces both
sides into recalibrations. The APC may see it as a strategic delay to finalize
bargaining terms, while the opposition must now decide whether to accommodate
his ambition or risk his defection.
For the People - Beware of Political Disinformation
The spread of fake defection news
further reveals a sinister undercurrent in Nigerian politics. The weaponization
of misinformation. As Kwankwaso himself noted, the false statement was an act
of "political mischief," likely aimed at destabilizing ongoing
alliance talks or triggering premature political realignment. The proliferation
of disinformation, especially on social media, has become an entrenched part of
electoral strategy in Nigeria, as documented in recent studies by CDD West
Africa (2023) and the Premium Times Centre for Investigative Journalism (PTCIJ,
2024).
Citizens must therefore remain
critically aware. The noise around defections, declarations, and denials is
often intended to distract the public from the absence of real ideological
commitments. As political commentator Jide Ojo puts it:
“In Nigeria, politicians hardly cross
the floor because of policy differences; it is mostly about electoral viability
and personal ambition.” (Ojo, The Guardian Nigeria, 2022)
The electorate must begin to
interrogate what politicians stand for, not merely where they stand.
For the Opposition Coalition - Turning
Uncertainty into Strategy
For the opposition coalition, this episode should serve as a clarion call. They must without further delay focus on:
- Crafting an ideological manifesto that binds the coalition beyond convenience.
- Solidifying internal structures to prevent late-stage betrayals.
- Positioning themselves as a clear alternative, not just an electoral reaction to APC dominance.
- Deploying fact-checking arms to counteract politically motivated fake news.
If Kwankwaso eventually joins them,
it must be on clear, negotiated terms that reflect public interest, not just
the transactional politics of the past.
Kwankwaso's Denial Speaks Volumes
Kwankwaso’s denial was not just about
correcting a falsehood. It was a signal, a carefully crafted pause in a longer
game of political recalibration. With 2027 approaching, we will see more of
such symbolic denials, half-alliances, and quiet exits.
In this evolving chessboard, the people
must be the true opposition, questioning intentions, demanding clarity, and
rewarding conviction. In a democracy, silence is not neutrality. It is a
choice. And every choice, especially from the powerful, must be scrutinized.
Until next week, this is Political Panorama with Ola Olateju - watching the horizon, one controversy at a time
www.politicalpanorama.com.ng
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