Nigeria’s Political Realignment and the Imperative for a Two-Party Contour: APC VS. ADC

    Political Panorama Issue No 16

With the formal unfolding of the Coalition Party into the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria’s political landscape is undergoing a seismic transformation. This shift is catalyzed by the perceived ideological compromises within established opposition parties - the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), whose leaderships are increasingly seen as aligning with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Consequently. The leadership of the PDP, LP, and NNPP once seen as potential bulwarks against APC hegemony are now widely seen as compromised, either co-opted by or sympathetic to APC's political dominance. This is in contrast to the majority of their members and grassroots supporters who remain disillusioned and ideologically opposed to the APC. These cracks have opened a clear pathway for the ADC to emerge as the genuine opposition party.

The fusion of credible third-force elements into the ADC and the visible fragmentation and ideological compromise within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) has resulted in an emergent de facto two-party system: the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). 

           

Ideological Divergence: APC's Neoliberalism vs. ADC's Welfarism

The realignments in the two camps are not just organizational but ideological. The APC implementation of neoliberal economic policies, including the abrupt removal of fuel subsidies, currency devaluation, and deregulation, firmly positioned the party on the right of the political Centre. These neoliberal policies, while aligned with Bretton Woods orthodoxy, have largely increased inequality, deepened poverty, and expanded elite accumulation at the expense of the working population. While these measures aim to restore macroeconomic stability, they have led to significant hardships for ordinary Nigerians, such as tripled fuel prices and nearly 30% inflation, without adequate compensatory mechanisms.

In contrast, for ADC - a centrist party, to provide a credible ideological alternative, it must reposition itself at the left of Centre. It must serve as a welfarist party committed to social democracy, inclusive governance, and pro-poor economic planning. By focusing on policies that prioritize social justice, wealth redistribution, and support for vulnerable populations, the ADC will offer a clear alternative to the APC's neo-liberal economic approach.

 

Nigeria workers protesting against impacts of neo-liberal economic policies

The Co-optation Crisis: Opposition in Name, Collaboration in Practice

The continuous alignment of key figures from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) with the APC has exposed a fundamental crisis of ideology and purpose. What was once a multiparty democratic system is now plagued by elite consensus politics where differences between parties are less about policy and more about power access and protection from the law.

For instance, the defection of the PDP vice presidential candidate to APC, the recent threat by the Akwa Ibom state governor, Umo Eno, instructing all his political appointees to either follow him to APC or resign their appointments, the open endorsement of president Tinubu for 2027 by Nyesome Wike and his G-5 co-travelers, the calculated silence of Rabiu Kwankwaso and his fractured NNPP, and the PDP’s Senatorial caucus leader publicly aligning with APC positions,  all point to the same phenomenon: opposition party leaderships that have lost ideological mooring, and in many cases, democratic integrity.

The APC, rather than facing robust opposition, now comfortably absorbs or silences dissent by coopting rivals - an onslaught that empties opposition platforms while reinforcing its own class-based political identity.

Why The APC Co-opting Strategy Will Ultimately Fail

The aggressive cannibalization of opposition elites is a short-sighted political strategy. It creates an echo chamber where policy discourse is dominated by market orthodoxy, exclusionary governance, and elite consensus, none of which resonate with the vast majority of Nigerians facing poverty, unemployment, and insecurity.

The APC, in projecting itself as a "catch-all" party of elites and technocrats, has inadvertently made itself the symbol of ultra-capitalism - a party of the few, by the few, for the few. This ideological uniformity alienates the majority, especially young Nigerians who powered the #EndSARS protests and the Labour Party surge in the 2023 elections. By capturing leaders and assuming grassroot based popularity that ignores the people, the APC reinforces its perception as a party of the market minority, uninterested in addressing the economic and social frustrations of the democratic majority.

The ADC And The Time to Get Down to Business

The ADC now stands at a historic crossroads. It must not only reject the ideological compromise of today’s politics but also present a genuine alternative, a party of people-centered development, of inclusive governance, and of democratic ownership.

What Should ADC Stand For?  The Party is to present a clear and attractive alternative. It must adopt a coherent ideological foundation based on:

Welfarism: Centering policies on social justice, wealth redistribution, public education, healthcare access, and rural development.

Community-based capitalism: Promoting locally anchored industries with cooperatives and communal ownership models in a socialised partnership economic format.

Public accountability and anti-corruption: Establishing transparent governance mechanisms and prosecuting economic crimes and unlike APC, avoiding to serve as a refugee camp for corrupt politicians.

The ADC must deliberately reconstruct itself around the masses. It must champion participatory democracy, social equity, and economic justice. These are values long abandoned by APC and compromised by PDP. Where APC deregulates markets, ADC must regulate them to protect the poor. Where APC removes subsidies with no cushioning measures, ADC must advocate welfarist buffers to ensure fairness in economic transitions.

Instead of elite defections preferred by APC, the ADC should build its leadership from the grassroots - student unions, trade associations, civil society organizations, and local community leaders. This structure would ensure ideological commitment and deepen ownership by the people.

Nigeria’s youth population, restless, politically aware, and demanding change needs a new political home. The ADC must open its doors to new thinkers, innovators, reformers, and social advocates. It must act as a conveyor belt for real change-makers who understand the pains of Nigerians and can translate hope into policy.

Policy Direction: A Welfarist Economic Agenda

To serve as a credible alternative, the ADC must develop clear, impactful policies that contrast with the APC’s neoliberal paradigm. These include:

Phased Fuel Subsidy Removal

The APC's abrupt removal of fuel subsidies has led to economic strain without adequate cushioning measures. The ADC can propose a more gradual approach, phasing out subsidies while simultaneously implementing targeted support programs such as parallel investments in mass transit, agricultural price control, and urban food distribution systems, to alleviate the burden on vulnerable populations. This strategy would involve transparent planning, stakeholder consultation, and the establishment of compensatory mechanisms to ensure a just transition.

Universal Basic Services

ADC ca introduce free or subsidized healthcare and education for all Nigerians, especially in rural areas. The educational supports must not be discriminatory against the students and staff of private universities. It must be all-embracing

Employment Guarantee Scheme

The Party can design a national public works program that provides youth employment opportunities in infrastructure development, environmental renewal projects, and digital economy; drawing lessons from previous programs like the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Program (SURE-P) (Coleridge Alleyne, 2013)

Targeted Social Safety Nets

The Party should as a matter of necessity transparently implement cash transfer programs and subsidies for essential goods and services to support low-income households affected by subsidy removals.

Support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)  

Providing tax holidays and incentives, soft loans, and mentorship for local entrepreneurs will go a long way in revamping the economy. Offering of financial assistance and business development support to SMEs impacted by increased operational costs due to fuel subsidy removal will also serve as a good foundation for economic development

Enhancement of Public Transportation

The Party should invest in mass transit systems including rail and water transportation to provide affordable transportation options, mitigating the impact of high fuel prices on commuters.

Transparent Communication and Public Engagement:

There is a need to ensure open dialogue with citizens about policy decisions, fostering trust and understanding through clear communication and stakeholder engagement (Guardian, 2024)

Progressive Taxation

Implementation of tax reforms that shift burdens from low-income to high-income earners including political office holders and capital holders should be given a serious consideration.

A Choice Between Two Nigerias

The current political realignment presents an opportunity for the ADC to emerge as a credible opposition by adopting welfarist policies that directly address the needs of the Nigerian populace. What is at stake in this emerging two-party scenario is not just political competition. It is the very soul of Nigeria’s future. On one side is the APC, the political face of the elite, global market capitalism, and state withdrawal from social welfare. On the other must be the ADC, offering a new compact, a caring state, inclusive politics, and people-driven development.

This ideological bifurcation: ultra-capitalist APC vs. welfarist ADC will offer Nigerians the clearest political choice since 1999. The collapse of the PDP, the waning of LP, and the commercialism of NNPP have left a vacuum which ADC must fill, not just structurally but ideologically.

If ADC can rally civic groups, the organized informal sector, youth movements, and progressive intellectuals around its banner, it could not only present a viable opposition but usher in a new era of people-centered governance in Nigeria

The continued onslaught by APC on opposition elites is merely strengthening the case for a real ideological alternative. The ADC must not waste this opportunity. It must become the ideological, organizational, and emotional home of the millions yearning for governance that works, that listens, and that delivers.

If this moment is seized, Nigeria may finally have the chance to choose not just between parties but between two visions of itself in 2027.

Until next week, this is Political Panorama with Ola Olateju

- watching the horizon, one controversy at a time

www.politicalpanorama.com.ng