The Impending APC Implosion and Its Chances in 2027

     Political Panorama Issue No 16

This analysis critically examines the growing internal crisis within Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), ahead of the 2027 general elections. Drawing from political theory and current developments, it identifies the absence of ideological coherence, increasing regional disaffection, particularly from the North and the South East and the festering alienation of key political leaders as potent indicators of a looming party implosion. It argues that while the APC still holds strategic advantages such as incumbency and elite network consolidation, its survival as a united electoral force in 2027 depends on its ability to address internal grievances and recalibrate its governance approach. The broader implications for Nigeria’s democratic stability are also discussed.

Since its formation in 2013, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has remained the dominant political party in Nigeria, securing presidential victories in 2015, 2019, and 2023. However, the post-2023 political climate has revealed deep internal fault lines within the party, signaling a potential implosion before the 2027 general elections. Unlike the major opposition parties which suffer from institutional disarray, the APC’s crisis is more of an internal contradiction stemming from elite power struggles, regional alienation, and legitimacy challenges in governance.

This analysis contends that unless the APC urgently addresses its internal contradictions and realigns with both its northern political base and the disenchanted South East, the party may struggle to present a united front in 2027. The analysis also contextualizes the presidential tenure disparity between Nigeria’s North and South since 1999, arguing that another southern tenure under President Bola Tinubu may exacerbate North-South tensions.                              

Engineer Umar Abdulahi Ganduje
APC National Chairman

The Fragile Foundation of the APC

The APC was an amalgamation of four opposition parties and a faction of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP): the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). The merger was driven primarily by the objective of defeating the then-dominant PDP, rather than any cohesive ideological vision (Omotola, 2014; Fayemi, 2017).

This transactional origin produced a party that prioritised electoral victory over ideological clarity or internal institutionalisation. As a result, internal contradictions began to surface shortly after the APC’s 2015 electoral victory, with recurring tensions between the presidency, governors, and party leadership (Ibeanu & Orji, 2020).

Brewing Disaffection in the North and East

1. Northern Alienation and Leadership Erosion

The most immediate threat to APC cohesion stems from growing northern discontent. Contrary to public assumptions, zoning is not a formal issue within the APC, but the perception of the North’s diminishing influence under the Tinubu administration is gaining traction. Several northern leaders perceive their region as being politically relegated, despite having contributed significantly to the party’s formation and electoral successes.

Notably, prominent northern figures such as former Governor Nasir El-Rufai and others have either withdrawn from national politics or been subjected to investigation and prosecution. While legal accountability is essential, the perceived targeting of northern political elites raises suspicions of selective justice and regional marginalisation (Akinyemi, 2024).

2 South East Marginalisation

The APC has consistently failed to make substantial political inroads into the South East, and recent developments have further alienated the region. Despite rhetoric on national inclusion, appointments, federal presence, and political engagement with the zone remain tokenistic. The sense of exclusion has strengthened pro-Biafra sentiments and discouraged political integration (Onuoha, 2022). The continued neglect of the South East within APC strategic planning only reinforces the perception of a party built around regional supremacy.

Presidential Tenure Disparity Since 1999

Another layer of complexity is the imbalance in presidential tenure between the North and the South since Nigeria's return to democratic rule in 1999. Between 1999 and 2023, the North (through Presidents Yar’Adua and Buhari) held the presidency for about 10 years (2007–2010 and 2015–2023), while the South (through Obasanjo, Jonathan, and Tinubu) will, by 2027, have held it for approximately 18 years.

This emerging numerical gap, though not legally codified, challenges Nigeria’s unwritten power-sharing arrangement and fuels northern calls for power return in 2027. An additional four-year term for Tinubu would widen the disparity further and could provoke a northern political backlash within the APC and across the broader political landscape (Ajayi & Ibrahim, 2023).

Governance Performance and Public Distrust

Tinubu’s economic reforms, particularly the fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalisation have led to a sharp rise in inflation, food insecurity, and poverty. Public frustration is compounded by worsening insecurity and limited job creation. These governance failures are eroding APC’s legitimacy among voters, especially in the North where the cost-of-living crisis has had severe consequences (World Bank, 2024).

While the APC may attempt to weaponize state institutions to secure victory in 2027, deteriorating public confidence makes such tactics increasingly untenable. Voter apathy, protest voting, or mass defections could significantly alter the electoral calculus.

Elite Fragmentation and the Risk of Implosion

The APC's internal democracy has further deteriorated, with imposed candidates, exclusionary primaries, and factionalism undermining the party’s cohesion. In states like Kano, Rivers, and Kaduna, disaffected members are either forming parallel structures or defecting to opposition parties. Unless the party initiates genuine reforms including conflict resolution mechanisms and inclusive leadership selection, its structure could splinter irreparably before the next general election (Ojo, 2021).

 APC’s Strengths in 2027

Despite these challenges, the APC retains certain advantages. These are

1. Incumbency Power: Control over federal institutions and resources could be leveraged for electoral gain.

2. Weak Opposition: Both the PDP and LP are currently grappling with internal disunity and lack nationwide coherence.

3. Electoral Engineering: The APC’s strong networks in rural areas and among traditional power brokers remain intact.

However, these factors are insufficient to offset the effects of internal implosion if northern alienation, southeastern marginalisation, and national economic discontent continue unchecked.

Conclusion

The APC stands at a critical juncture. Its current trajectory suggests a party at risk of internal implosion, not due to external pressures, but from the festering wounds of regional betrayal, elite disenchantment, and governance failure. While its incumbency offers strategic advantages, this may not translate into electoral success in 2027 unless it urgently reconciles with its northern and southeastern bases, reforms its internal democracy, and delivers credible governance.

A party that rose on the back of a coalition must, if it hopes to survive, return to the tenets of inclusion, justice, and internal cohesion or face a fate not unlike that of the PDP in 2015.

NB: We are unable to present the Labour Party's analysis this week due to some recent recent developments in the party which require our further investigation. We shall keep you informed once we are through. Thank you. 

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