Political Panorama Issue No 23
As Nigeria marches toward another defining presidential election in 2027, subterranean political forces have begun a cynical orchestration. One that aims to bring former President Goodluck Jonathan back into the race on the platform of the wrecked Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). On the surface, it is sold as a move to unite the nation. In truth, it is a desperate gamble by a group of threatened PDP oligarchs trying to protect their political futures from the surging momentum of Atiku Abubakar’s emergence through the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This nocturnal plot is a self-preservation tactic dressed in borrowed national colours.
 |
| HE Goodluck Ebele Jonathan |
The Real Strategy Behind the
Jonathan Draft: Northern Oligarchs in Disguise
The
attempt to reintroduce Jonathan into the race is not rooted in national healing
or statesmanship. Rather, it is driven by a cabal of northern political heavyweights, mostly current
governors, whose presidential ambitions are threatened by Atiku’s unexpected
realignment with the ADC and his rising profile as a unifying figure. These
governors, some of whom will be completing their terms in 2027, have been caught off-guard by Atiku’s coalition
resurgence, particularly his growing appeal across zones. With the
possible entry of Peter Obi as running
mate, solidifying a North-South handshake that could redefine electoral
arithmetic.
By
pushing Jonathan forward, these oligarchs hope to stall Atiku, buy time, and maintain their grip on PDP’s internal
mechanisms. But their plan has fatal flaws.
The Imbalance Problem: Jonathan's Return Worsens the North-South Trust Deficit
One
of the most delicate fault lines in Nigeria's politics is the North-South rotational expectation.
Even though unofficial, it remains a moral compass of power distribution in a
fragile federation. By 2027, after four
years of Tinubu (South-West), five years of Goodluck Jonathan (South-South), eight years of Obasanjo (South-West) compared with eight years of Buhari (North-West) and three years of Yar'Adua (North West), there
is an underlying expectation that equity would be recalibrated in favour of North East and South East.
Jonathan’s
return to the ring after already ruling
for five years will not be seen as justice by the North. Rather, it
would be perceived, especially among average northern voters, as an opportunistic power grab by the
South-South to short-circuit the natural flow of zoning and block the
North from retaking the presidency through a fresh mandate. Ironically, the same cabals pushing Jonathan know this
perception exists, but they are willing to burn down the house to stall
Atiku.
Jonathan
and the Zoning Crisis He Created
It
is worth reminding Nigerians that Goodluck
Jonathan himself planted the seed of the PDP’s zoning crisis. Out of
sheer political selfishness, he dragged both the party, and by extension, the
nation into the current zoning mess. When fate handed him the presidency upon
the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Jonathan had an opportunity to
honour the spirit of the North-South arrangement by allowing the North to
complete its turn. Instead, he deliberately
broke the gentleman’s agreement, cheated the North, and put personal
ambition above party stability and national cohesion.
The
injury he inflicted on the PDP’s internal harmony was avoidable, yet he chose a
path that deepened mistrust and fractured the party’s power-sharing
credibility. Now, if he re-enters the race, what excuse will he give the North to justify seeking their votes
to rule for nine years instead of eight,
thereby further widening the gap in presidential opportunities between the two
divides? If Jonathan is honest with himself, he will see that his reappearance
in 2027 would be nothing more than an
act of long throat for power and the attendant affluence, not a service
to Nigeria’s national interest.
Jonathan's Past: The Myth of
Voluntary Surrender Unravels
Goodluck Jonathan’s international image as a peaceful statesman rests heavily on his concession of defeat to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. But if he re-enters the race now, many Nigerians particularly youth and Northern voters will begin to ask two uncomfortable questions. Did Jonathan truly relinquish power willingly in 2015, or was he boxed into a corner by internal rebellion and international pressure? If he once conceded for peace, why is he returning now, after almost a decade, into a terrain already crowded and unstable?
His
reappearance may erode the aura of
elder statesmanship and rekindle debates about his indecisive leadership, which arguably allowed insecurity, oil
theft, and elite impunity to thrive. He may be reminded that when the chips
were down, he lacked the firm grip of
Obasanjo or the calm technocratic control of Yar’Adua.
Performance Legacy: Jonathan’s
Regime in Retrospect
Among
PDP’s past presidents - Obasanjo,
Yar’Adua, and Jonathan, it is widely acknowledged that Jonathan’s administration
suffered from weak leadership, an
overwhelmed cabinet, and poor inter-agency coordination. Although better
than the catastrophic incompetence of Buhari’s era and the incoherent
governance of Tinubu’s early days, Jonathan’s legacy pales when held
side-by-side with the transformational (albeit controversial) efforts of
Obasanjo or the disciplined calm of Yar’Adua. If he returns now, he must face this historical ledger.
And he will not be judged kindly.
The Atiku Factor: A Superior
Strategy Is Already in Play
Meanwhile,
Atiku Abubakar has outmanoeuvred the
PDP oligarchs by breaking away from the old party system and leading a credible national coalition under
the ADC. With quiet but steady collaborations with some individuals, groups and movements in the Southwest, South-South, and the Southeast, Atiku is building a national movement
that speaks to the aspirations of both the older generation and Nigeria’s
frustrated youth.
If
Peter Obi joins the ticket as envisaged, the combination becomes an electoral
dynamite in form of North-East meets South-East; experience meets youth; elite
wisdom meets mass appeal. It becomes an unignorable force that neither PDP nor
APC can easily counter.
The
entry of Jonathan will not slow ADC or Atiku down. It will merely fracture the PDP further, deepen opposition
division, and expose the selfish intentions behind the move.
Conclusion: Jonathan Will Find No
Glory Here
If
Goodluck Jonathan allows himself to be used in this self-serving PDP cabal agenda, he will not only fail to win, but will also permanently dent his legacy. He will
move from a global symbol of peaceful
transition to a local symbol of elite recycling and regional imbalance.
History will not forgive such a miscalculation.
And for those hoping to use him as a placeholder to block ADC or Atiku, they will find that the Nigerian electorate of 2027 is not that gullible anymore. The future of Nigeria cannot be built on recycled scripts and expired calculations. The train has left the PDP station, and Jonathan, if he boards now, will only find himself arriving at a destination of disappointment. As the old saying goes, "half a word in a message is enough for the wise, they read between the lines without needing the full script.” Jonathan shine your eyes and lend yourself a bit of wisdom.
Until next week, this is Political Panorama with Ola Olateju - Voice of the Coalition. Voice of the People.
0 Comments