Zoning or Competence? A Case for a Merit-Based Nigerian Presidency

                                                                                                                  Political  Panorama Issue No 22 

In the crucible of Nigeria’s political evolution, few topics stir national discourse more fiercely than the question of zoning the presidency. In the long, arduous journey of Nigerian nationhood, we have employed various formulas to maintain this delicate union. Among them, zoning - the informal rotation of presidential power between North and South, aimed at calming fears of marginalisation and ensuring a sense of inclusion among our federating regions. It is often framed as a necessary vehicle for equity, inclusion, and federal balance. And while these values are noble and essential, we must now ask: Has zoning achieved these goals, or has it masked deeper failures while trading competence for convenience? Originally conceived to give every region a sense of belonging, zoning has now been weaponised by ethnic entrepreneurs and political merchants. It has become an excuse to impose weak candidates who carry the baggage of godfathers instead of the blueprint of reform.

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Since 1999, zoning has rotated the presidency between North and South, yet the core symptoms of underdevelopment have worsened. Whether led by a Southerner or a Northerner, Nigeria has suffered rising poverty, epileptic power supply, failing infrastructure, and declining institutions. Zoning has not delivered governance. It has only redistributed opportunity among elites.

As of today, Nigeria is a nation teetering on the edge of socioeconomic collapse. Insecurity is rampant, youth unemployment is epidemic, corruption is normalized, debt is suffocating, and our global standing is embarrassingly diminished. Against this backdrop, the idea that presidential selection should be dictated primarily by region, not competence, remains a dangerous gamble with the destiny of 220 million citizens.

Nigeria has reached a point where zoning can no longer carry the weight of our survival. To insist on zoning as the primary criterion for presidential selection in 2027 is to ignore the sheer scale of the crisis we face. It is to mistake geopolitical equity for leadership excellence. It is to risk national collapse in the name of regional balance. We must now speak plainly. Nigeria needs a competent, visionary, and globally exposed leader. Not a zonal beneficiary.

The Zoning Argument: Comforting, But Dangerous

At face value, zoning sounds fair. Rotate the presidency so that every part of Nigeria feels a sense of belonging. But this logic begins to unravel when we look at what zoning has not delivered.

1.      It has not improved governance.

2.      It has not reduced poverty.

3.      It has not ended insecurity.

4.      It has not increased access to education or healthcare.

5.      And most of all, it has not united Nigerians in any lasting sense.

Instead, zoning has become a convenient disguise for incompetence, where mediocre candidates ride into power on ethnic sentiments and elite bargains. It has created the illusion of fairness while hiding the reality of state capture by vested interests.

Competence Builds Nations, Not Zonal Arithmetic

Great nations are not built by rotating leadership among ethnic groups. They are built by selecting the most qualified, visionary, and capable individuals to lead in difficult times. Did Rwanda rise from genocide because of ethnic zoning? Did Singapore transform from a slum to a tech capital because of regional turn-taking? No. They rose because they chose leaders based on merit, capacity, and national vision.

Nigeria is no longer in a situation where it can afford symbolism over substance. The challenges before us - debt, inflation, insecurity, brain drain, institutional decay, global irrelevance etc.; require seriousness, not sentimentalism.

Tinubu’s Tenure and the Current Zonal Equation

As of 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Southerner from the South-West, assumed office. By 2027, he would have spent four years as president, continuing from Goodluck Jonathan’s five years and Obasanjo’s eight years.

From 1999 to 2027 (28 years of uninterrupted democracy), the presidency will have been held as follows:

President	Zone	Tenure
Olusegun Obasanjo	South-West	1999–2007 (8 yrs)
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua	North-West	2007–2010 (3 yrs)
Goodluck Jonathan	South-South	2010–2015 (5 yrs)
Muhammadu Buhari	North-West	2015–2023 (8 yrs)
Bola Ahmed Tinubu	South-West	2023–2027 (4 yrs)

Total: South: Obasanjo (8) + Jonathan (5) + Tinubu (4) = 17 years. 

North: Yar’Adua (3) + Buhari (8) = 11 years

If zoning is truly about equity, the North has a legitimate claim to the next presidency if 2027 must follow regional rotation logic.

Yet, this arithmetic only fuels a dangerous zero-sum narrative: “It’s our turn.”
That logic will only widen the South-North gulf, sharpen ethnic tension, and reduce national politics to regional trade-offs.

The South Must Not Overplay Its Hand

If after 2027, another Southern candidate is pushed forward purely on the basis of zoning, it will be interpreted in the North as political injustice. And rightly so. Such a move will deepen mistrust, fuel resentment, and destroy the fragile consensus that sustains our democratic system.

Rather than fixate on where the next president should come from, we should ask: Who is best prepared to lead Nigeria into the future?

Let Nigerians focus on what a candidate offers, not where he or she is from. Let’s reject regional entitlement and demand competence, clarity, and character.

The Trap of Sentimental Democracy

Zoning may give the illusion of fairness, but it creates a reality of lowered standards. It allows political elites to hide weak candidates behind the mask of identity. It reduces voters to ethnic pawns and turns elections into turn-by-turn looting contests. Nigerians deserve better.

If we want true inclusion, let us reform our institutions. Let us enforce federal character in appointments. Let us strengthen local governments. Let us invest in equitable development.

But let us not gamble with the presidency - our most strategic national office in the name of rotation.

Nigeria Needs a Globally Minded, Experienced Leader, Not a Regional Token

The presidency in 2027 must go beyond familiar "it's our turn" slogan. We need a leader who can rescue our collapsing economy and revalue the Naira. A leader who  understands global economic systems and can attract global investment, negotiate trade and debt agreements, and restore Nigeria’s diplomatic respect. We need a leader who can manage a diverse nation, not with manipulation, but with fairness, humility, and effectiveness. It must be one who can lead comprehensive institutional reform to decentralize power and stimulate productivity. Nigeria requires a leader who can command international respect to restore Nigeria’s influence in ECOWAS, the AU, and beyond and one who understands the economy, diplomacy, statecraft, security architecture, and governance innovation. Not one who ticks a regional box. This leader must not be chosen based on origin, but on his value, vision and verifiable capacity.

 The Precipice Demands Leadership, Not Sentiment

Nigeria is bleeding from every pore. To insist on zoning as the pathway to 2027 is to ignore the scale of our collapse. It is to prioritize ethnic arithmetic over national recovery.

The country is at a precipice. We do not need another “turn by turn” presidency. We need a turnaround presidency.

The country cannot afford another zoning experiment that prioritizes geographical justice over generational survival.

Zoning may have served a political purpose in a young democracy. But today, it has become an outdated formula in the face of modern complexity. The next Nigerian president must be competent, courageous, cerebral, compassionate and connected to the people of the World. 

Let that person be from wherever but let him or her be the best among us.

Political Panorama will continue to monitor, analyze, and support all efforts toward a restructured, equitable, and united Nigeria. The time has come to drop the old labels and embrace the new leadership logic.

 Until next week, this is Political Panorama with Ola Olateju - Voice of the Coalition. Voice of the People.

- watching the horizon, one controversy at a time

 

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