State Creation in Nigeria: A Political Necessity or a Recipe for Fragmentation? - Ola Olateju

                                                                                                                                               Issue No 10     The debate over state creation in Nigeria has resurfaced as political actors and regional stakeholders push for more administrative units ahead of the 2027 general elections. Advocates argue that creating new states will foster development, ensure equitable representation, and address marginalization. However, critics warn that it could deepen ethnic divisions, strain national resources, and lead to further political instability. This analysis evaluates the pros and cons of state creation, its historical context, and its likely impact on the next election cycle, with a specific focus on Ijebu State—the only former colonial province yet to attain full statehood in post-independence Nigeria.

                          

Map of Nigeria

Historical Context of State Creation in Nigeria

Since independence in 1960, Nigeria has transitioned from a three-region structure to 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The first major state creation exercise occurred in 1967 under General Yakubu Gowon, who replaced the regions with 12 states to weaken the power of secessionist movements during the Nigerian Civil War. Subsequent military regimes, including those of Murtala Muhammed (1976), Ibrahim Babangida (1987, 1991), and Sani Abacha (1996), further expanded the number of states. However, despite these changes, calls for additional states persist, often driven by ethnic, economic, and political interests (Adebayo, 2023).

The Case for State Creation

Advocates of state creation present a compelling case, emphasizing its potential to bring governance closer to the people, accelerate economic development, and resolve long-standing grievances of marginalized groups. One of the strongest arguments in favor of state creation is its perceived ability to enhance development by decentralizing governance. Proponents argue that smaller states are easier to manage, allowing for more effective administration and targeted infrastructure projects. The economic transformation of Lagos and Akwa Ibom after their state creation exercises serves as a testament to this argument (Okonjo-Iweala, 2022). By breaking large states into smaller units, citizens could benefit from better road networks, improved educational facilities, and enhanced healthcare services tailored to local needs.

Another crucial justification for state creation is political inclusion. Many ethnic minorities feel politically underrepresented in larger states where dominant ethnic groups control power. In such cases, the agitation for statehood is not just about governance efficiency but also about self-determination. The creation of Bayelsa State in 1996 gave the Ijaw people a distinct political identity, helping to quell their long-standing grievances about marginalization (Eze, 2023). Similarly, groups in Southern Kaduna and Oke-Ogun believe that new states would offer them fairer representation and better political bargaining power.

State creation is also seen as a means of improving security and administrative efficiency. Nigeria’s existing states often struggle with security challenges, and some argue that smaller states would enable better policing and crisis management. A more localized government structure could reduce bureaucratic bottlenecks, allowing governors to respond swiftly to security threats. This argument is particularly relevant in states plagued by banditry and terrorism, such as Kaduna and Zamfara, where proponents believe smaller administrative units could enhance grassroots policing (Obi, 2023).

Finally, economic stimulation is another major argument in favor of state creation. New states would qualify for federal allocations, potentially attracting local and foreign investments. With proper governance, these allocations could fund industrial projects, create employment opportunities, and drive regional economic growth. For example, the creation of Delta State led to an economic boom driven by oil revenues and infrastructural investments (Olawale, 2023).

The Arguments Against State Creation

Despite these compelling arguments, critics of state creation raise concerns about its financial feasibility, political exploitation, and the risk of deepening national divisions. The foremost challenge is the economic sustainability of newly created states. Most of Nigeria’s existing states rely heavily on federal allocations, with little to no internally generated revenue. The creation of new states would further stretch national resources, placing an additional burden on the federal government. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (2023), only Lagos, Rivers, and Ogun States generate sufficient internal revenue to sustain their operations, while many others struggle to pay salaries. If more states are created without viable economic plans, the result could be an increase in debt dependency and financial mismanagement (Akinyemi, 2023).

Another significant concern is the potential to deepen ethnic and political divisions. Many state creation demands are driven by ethnic and regional sentiments rather than administrative necessity. For example, the call for an Anioma State stems largely from the Igbo desire for greater influence within Delta State, rather than a well-defined need for better governance (Adebayo, 2023). If the government continues to approve states based on ethnic agitations, it could lead to more fragmentation, with different groups pushing for further subdivisions. This could make governance more difficult and foster a sense of separatism, undermining national unity.

Critics also argue that state creation could become a tool for political manipulation. Politicians often exploit the demand for new states to secure electoral support, promising new administrative units without concrete plans for their sustainability. During past election cycles, various candidates have made promises to support state creation efforts, only to abandon them once in office. This pattern is likely to repeat itself in 2027, as political actors use state creation as a bargaining chip to win votes (Obi, 2023).

Moreover, the creation of additional states may lead to weakened governance structures. Each new state requires its own civil service, judiciary, and administrative apparatus, which could lead to the duplication of government functions and increased bureaucracy. The inefficiencies associated with multiple layers of governance could slow down decision-making processes and lead to wasteful spending (Eze, 2023).

The Special Case of Ijebu State

                                       

Senator Gbenga Daniel
Senator, Representing Ogun East

Among the numerous requests for state creation—including Anioma (Delta State), Southern Kaduna (Kaduna State), and Oke-Ogun (Oyo State)—Ijebu State stands out as the only former colonial province yet to attain full statehood in post-independence Nigeria. The Ijebu Province existed as a distinct administrative unit under British colonial rule but was later merged into the Western Region and subsequently Ogun State (Falola, 2021). Unlike other groups agitating for new states based on ethnic sentiments, Ijebu’s demand is rooted in historical and administrative legitimacy (Osuntokun, 2022). The province had a structured governance system, a strong economic base, and a defined territorial boundary before its absorption, making its case the most deserving of consideration (Akinwunmi, 2023).

Likely Impact on the 2027 General Elections

As political parties gear up for the elections, the issue of state creation will become a critical bargaining tool, with aspirants making promises of new states in a bid to secure electoral support. The demand for new states will influence voter behavior, particularly in regions where communities feel marginalized. Political candidates who align themselves with these demands may receive overwhelming support from aggrieved groups, while those who ignore them risk alienating key voting blocs.

Beyond campaign promises, the agitation for state creation has the potential to reshape the electoral map. If new states are created before 2027, they would alter the existing power dynamics within the National Assembly and impact federal revenue allocation. This could have far-reaching consequences, influencing zoning arrangements and the selection of political candidates.

Ultimately, state creation will remain a contentious issue in the lead-up to the 2027 elections, shaping electoral narratives and influencing both voter perception and candidate selection. Whether it serves as a catalyst for national development or a source of political instability depends largely on how it is managed by policymakers, political parties, and the electorate.

Conclusion

While state creation remains a contentious issue, its feasibility must be weighed against economic sustainability, governance efficiency, and national unity. Among all the proposed states, Ijebu State stands as the most historically and administratively justified, being the only colonial province yet to transform into a state post-independence.

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