Nigeria @65: Between Resilience and Fragile Progress

                                                                                                                       Political  Panorama Issue No 26

Sixty-five years after independence, Nigeria remains a paradox. Africa’s largest economy on paper, yet home to some of the world’s most disillusioned citizens. Its population is resilient, creative, and entrepreneurial, but weighed down by insecurity, inflation, unemployment, and weak governance. At this milestone, the question is unavoidable - has Nigeria grown beyond survival, or is it still trapped in cycles of fragile progress?

                              

The Economy: Growth on Paper, Pain in Reality

Nigeria’s economy, according to official statistics, is on the rebound. Officially, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025. But while policymakers celebrate, millions of citizens are struggling to afford food, transport, and healthcare. Inflation remains stubbornly high, eating away at incomes. Prices of basic goods remain punishingly high and the naira’s volatility continues to erode household income.

. “The figures show growth, but the markets show hunger. For the average Nigerian, GDP is just three letters.”

The removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates may be bold reforms, but they have worsened hardship. For many families, survival now means rationing meals, abandoning medical check-ups, or sending children to work instead of school. Economic growth without affordable food, transport, and healthcare is growth without meaning. The Tinubu administration’s reforms - fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification may be necessary in theory, but in practice they have intensified hardship. Nigeria at 65 must confront this paradox of the statistics of growth versus the reality of survival.

Politics: Reform Without Relief

Politically, Nigeria remains trapped in a cycle of high expectations and diminishing returns. President Bola Tinubu has styled himself as a reformer. His administration has pushed through policies that previous governments avoided. Yet the speed and harshness of these reforms have raised new questions of legitimacy. The President’s reformist zeal has been met with both applause and anger. His bold steps have exposed a government that risks losing popular legitimacy if reforms are not accompanied by social protection. Nigerians are not against reform; they are against reform without fairness.

Without visible safety nets, bold economic decisions risk deepening political alienation. Without a deliberate effort to redistribute the burdens and benefits, the centre risks losing its already fragile hold on the confidence of citizens. Reform without inclusion breeds resistance, and resistance, in Nigeria’s fragile political environment, quickly transforms into unrest

Security: The Nation Under Siege

At 65, Nigeria remains unable to guarantee safety within its borders. Insurgency in the northeast, banditry in the northwest, herder-farmer clashes in the middle belt, and kidnappings nationwide paint a grim picture. The Nigerian state still responds largely with military might, while the deeper causes - poverty, local governance failures, and impunity fester. Nigeria at 65 is still a country under siege. Violence has become routine.

The state’s heavy reliance on military force has not been matched by investment in governance or justice. As a result, communities remain vulnerable, while armed groups thrive on poverty and neglect.

“Every time I leave home, I say a prayer. That is not how citizens should live in their own country.” — Resident, Kaduna State

Security is Nigeria’s Achilles heel. Without credible strategies that combine intelligence, community policing, development, and justice, the state risks normalising violence as part of everyday life. And when violence becomes normal, progress in every other sector becomes impossible.

Governance: Policies Without Proof

Every year, Nigerian governments produce thick policy documents - on employment, education, or health. Yet implementation rarely matches ambition. Budgets are inadequate, and corruption diverts what little is available.

Education reforms look good on paper, but classrooms remain overcrowded and under-resourced. Health sector policies promise universal coverage, yet hospitals remain understaffed and poorly equipped.

Quick Fact
Nigeria spends less than 5% of its national budget on health — below the African Union’s recommended 15%.

Youth and Employment: Dreams Deferred

The Nigerian youth, who make up the majority of the population, remain both the nation’s greatest asset and its greatest liability. Despite official claims of falling unemployment, the lived reality is underemployment, poor-quality jobs, and the endless hustle of survival.

The government has launched a National Employment Policy and supported skills training programmes. But unemployment figures remain contested after recent statistical “adjustments.” For most young people, nothing has changed: jobs are scarce, wages are low, and opportunities are limited. Skills acquisition programmes, while laudable, are scattered, uncoordinated, and often fail to connect young people with real jobs.

“We don’t need training for training’s sake. We need real jobs, real wages, real futures.” — Graduate, Lagos

The youth are not just restless; they are increasingly disillusioned. Many see emigration as the only path to a better life. This “japa” wave is both a loss of talent and a vote of no confidence in the system.

If Nigeria is to harness its demographic dividend, youth employment must move from token gestures to a national emergency plan. Otherwise, frustration will continue to boil over into protests, emigration, and even violent crime.

Education: Shifting Ground, Persistent Inequities

Nigeria’s education system has suffered from both neglect and inconsistency. Millions of children are still out of school, especially in conflict areas, while teachers remain underpaid and learning outcomes continue to decline.

Beyond underfunding, two deeper issues shape the crisis:

1.                    Policy Instability. Nigeria’s frequent shifts in education models — from 6-5-2-3+ to 6-3-3-4, and now toward yet another structure — reflect indecision at the highest levels. Many educators argue that reverting to the 6-5-2-3+ model, with six years as the starting age, would allow the Nigerian child to mature before entering university. The five years of applied education, followed by two years of advanced-level study, would offer a smoother, more disciplined transition into tertiary education.

2.                    Discrimination Against Private Universities. Despite their critical role in absorbing students and expanding access, private universities remain excluded from key funding streams such as TETFund. Their students are often shut out of government-backed loan programmes. This discrimination not only stifles competition but also undermines justice and equity in the system.

“Removing discrimination against private universities and their students is a sine qua non for fairness and equity.”

Without structural stability, fair funding, and consistency, Nigeria’s education sector risks condemning another generation to mediocrity.

Inclusiveness and Cohesion: Fractured Bonds

Nigeria’s diversity, once hailed as strength, now feels like a fault line.  Regional inequalities, ethnic mistrust, and religious tension have widened under the weight of economic hardship and political exclusion. Social media, while powerful, often amplifies division and misinformation, spreading hate speech and misinformation at lightning speed.

National unity cannot be sustained through slogans alone. It requires equity, justice, and visible fairness in resource distribution and opportunities.

Sports and Youth Development: Missed Opportunities

From the days of global football glory to Olympic podium finishes, Nigeria has shown the world its sporting talent. But that talent is not nurtured at home. Infrastructure is dilapidated, grassroots development is absent, and sports administration is plagued by corruption. Sports could be a vehicle for national pride and youth employment, but for now it remains a wasted opportunity.

Sports could create jobs, foster unity, and project Nigeria’s soft power globally — but for now, the sector remains underdeveloped.

International Affairs: Shrinking Presence, Weakened Voice

Nigeria’s diplomatic clout has long rested on its size, population, and oil wealth. But at 65, its influence is slipping. For two years, Nigeria operated without ambassadors and high commissioners in several key capitals — an extraordinary gap for a nation claiming continental leadership.

Even more damaging is President Tinubu’s consistent absence from United Nations General Assembly gatherings. Nigeria’s no-show on the world stage raises doubts about its seriousness, undermines its voice in multilateral diplomacy, and leaves regional rivals eager to fill the vacuum.

Coupled with domestic instability and policy inconsistency, Nigeria’s absence from critical global spaces has dangerous implications for its foreign relations, foreign investment, and continental leadership.

Closing Reflections: Beyond Survival

At 65, Nigeria remains a nation of resilience - but resilience is not enough. Surviving crisis after crisis without building a pathway to transformation is unsustainable.

“At sixty-five, survival is no longer an achievement. Nigerians deserve transformation, not endurance.

The challenge before Nigeria is clear. Make economic growth meaningful, reforms inclusive, security credible, governance accountable, and youth empowered.

Note to Readers

I wish to clarify that my decision not to send or acknowledge Independence Day greetings was a deliberate one, born out of conviction rather than disregard for friends, colleagues, or well-wishers. I hold every goodwill message in high esteem. However, I personally find little cause for celebration in the face of Nigeria’s persistent poverty, insecurity, injustice, and poor governance. My stance is not meant to slight anyone, but to underline the urgent need for us to reflect deeply on the state of our nation and commit to building the Nigeria we all desire.

Political Panorama Poll

Ø   Do you feel government reforms have improved your daily life?

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Until next week, this is Political Panorama with Ola Olateju - Voice of the Coalition. Voice of the People.

- watching the horizon, one controversy at a time

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