Obasanjo’s Bombshell and the Last Stand for Nigeria’s Democracy

                                                                                                                Special Issue No 5 April 2025

                      

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo

In what is rapidly being recognized as one of the most controversial political commentaries of the decade, former Nigerian President and retired Army General, Olusegun Obasanjo, has allegedly declared that no individual opposition candidate, be it Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, or Rabiu Kwankwaso can defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 presidential elections without what he ominously termed a “war.” This bold assertion, reportedly made during a closed-door conversation with political allies and later leaked to the media, has ignited intense debate within Nigeria and across the African continent.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s recent remarks, describing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as “more dangerous than Hitler” and asserting that only a “war” could stop his re-election in 2027, have shaken Nigeria’s political terrain to its core. The statement is no ordinary outburst. It is a call, alarming, sobering, and strategic, for Nigerians and the opposition to rethink their path ahead or brace for irreversible consequences. Nigerians must listen to Obasanjo, not necessarily for the dramatics of his rhetoric, but for the deep-seated realities he is exposing. His statement, laced with both alarm and urgency, is not just a political prophecy; it is a damning indictment of the complacency that has gripped Nigeria’s political opposition, the working class, the youth and civil society alike.

Behind this simple call, lies a simple truth. If Nigerians and their opposition leaders treat 2027 as business as usual, they should prepare for a Venezuela-type collapse in their economy, institutions, and collective future.

 Obasanjo's Stark Warning: Unity or Defeat

Obasanjo emphasized that under the prevailing political structure, Tinubu's strategic control of key institutions renders individual opposition efforts futile. He stressed the necessity for a formidable, united coalition if there is any realistic aspiration to challenge Tinubu’s grip on power.

 “Let no one deceive you—neither Atiku, Obi, nor Kwankwaso can defeat Tinubu on their own,” Obasanjo is quoted as saying. “If they do not unite, they will fail again, and Nigerians should simply allow Tinubu to finish his eight years.”

This trenchant observation highlights the chronic fragmentation within Nigeria’s opposition ranks—a problem which, many believe, facilitated Tinubu’s relatively unencumbered victory in the 2023 general elections.

Labeling President Tinubu as “more dangerous than Hitler” may appear extreme, but beneath this hyperbole lies a calculated strategic warning: Nigeria is heading toward a point of no return. Obasanjo, with all his contradictions, understands the architecture of power like no other living Nigerian politician. When he says that Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso cannot win individually, he is reminding the nation of the fatal fragmentation that handed Tinubu the presidency in 2023 and could entrench him further in 2027. Obasanjo’s assertion is not just an indictment of past opposition failures, it is a prelude to future disaster if the lesson remains unlearned. It is now glaringly clear: only a unified, well-structured, and strategically coordinated coalition of all major opposition forces can mount a credible challenge in 2027, regardless the rantings of the PDP Governors and the Party’s collaborative leadership.

The personalization of opposition politics driven by ego, regional chauvinism, and delusions of solo victories—must end. Nigerians cannot afford another cycle of divided ambition masquerading as democratic contestation

Tinubu’s grip on Nigeria’s political and institutional levers such as INEC, the judiciary, security services, and patronage networks is not accidental; it is systematic. Without a united front, a comprehensive strategy, and a true people-powered movement, 2027 will not be an election; it will be a coronation.

State of the Nation: “Nigeria is Not Normal”

Obasanjo reportedly described the prevailing political and socio-economic atmosphere in Nigeria as fundamentally abnormal. He pointed to widespread economic hardship, institutional decay, and increasing civil discontent as evidence of systemic collapse.

 “Nigeria is not in a normal state, and sometimes, abnormalities are needed to restore normalcy,” he allegedly asserted, hinting at the necessity of extraordinary measures, possibly including organized civil resistance or sweeping structural reforms to reclaim the country’s future.

WhatsApp Activism is Not a Revolution

A crucial, though underemphasized, implication of Obasanjo’s warning is the futility of relying on emotionally charged digital activism as a substitute for real political work. In recent years, the rise of WhatsApp groups and viral hashtags has created a dangerous illusion—that a few forwarded messages, trending slogans, or online polls can dismantle entrenched political machinery and reclaim national destiny.

Nigeria cannot be rescued by WhatsApp warriors or Twitter rants. Liberation cannot be digitized. What is needed is structured, disciplined, and ideologically coherent grassroots organizing. Real change will come through institutional engagement, strategic coalition-building, and a nationwide movement that transcends class, ethnicity, religion, and social media echo chambers.

Worse still, within the People's Democratic Party (PDP), Obasanjo former Party, proliferation of WhatsApp groups claiming to be working toward party unity has become a deceptive setback, not a solution. Many of these groups are now the digital face of a covert hijack. They have created a false sense of revival and solidarity among party members, concealing the uncomfortable truth that the PDP has been thoroughly compromised.

Behind these digital facades lies a collaborative leadership cartel quietly working to ensure the continued dominance of the APC in power. Many administrators of these so-called "rescue groups" are either tragically ignorant of the magnitude of rot within the PDP or are active collaborators in the sabotage of the opposition. Their slogans of unity are often carefully engineered messages designed to pacify, distract, and neutralize genuine reform efforts.

True PDP loyalists and Nigerian patriots must beware: swallowing the narrative of these groups without scrutiny is tantamount to walking blindly into political ambush. Unity must not be reduced to WhatsApp consensus—it must be forged through credible leadership, structural reform, and a refusal to cooperate with agents of continuity disguised as comrades of change

 The Opposition Must Wake Up or Be Complicit

Nigerians must ask: are Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso willing to subsume their egos for national salvation? Or will they once again gamble with Nigeria’s future to pursue individual ambitions? History will not forgive them if they repeat the mistakes of 2023. The 2027 elections cannot be business as usual. The “gentleman’s politics” of polite campaigns, social media fanfare, and fragmented town halls will not defeat the entrenched machinery of state capture. A grand alliance is not optional. It is existential.

Obasanjo’s cryptic remark that “abnormalities are needed to restore normalcy” is a coded call for more than electoral politics—it’s a call for radical civic awakening. If Nigeria’s economy continues its freefall, with rising inflation, food insecurity, and the naira plunging into irrelevance, then the 2027 elections may be the last chance to prevent a Venezuelan-style collapse. In Venezuela, elections became hollow rituals, and economic ruin became a permanent feature. Nigeria is dangerously close to that path.

Nigerians Must Choose: Rise or Rot

Let it be said plainly. 2027 is not just another election year. It is a defining moment in the battle for Nigeria’s soul. If citizens allow disunity among opposition leaders, continue with emotional tribal politics, and remain passive observers to institutional decay, then they are consciously surrendering their future and that of generations unborn to ruin.

If there is no united political front, no clear national rescue agenda, and no strategic voter mobilization, then Nigerians must prepare not just for another four years of hardship, but for a long, dark night of democratic deterioration.

 From General to Commander: Obasanjo Must Lead from the Front

Given Obasanjo’s distinguished military background as a retired general and former Head of State, his characterization of Nigeria’s situation as warranting a “war” demands serious reflection. Traditionally, in military ethos, a general who identifies the need for combat is expected to lead from the front rather than issue commands from the rear.

Thus, if Obasanjo genuinely believes in the necessity of a "Sabuwar Tafiya" (New Journey or New Path), which in Yoruba means Ona Tuntun, Uzo Ohuru in Igbo, Kwagh u dedoo in Tiv, Ovien R’oghene in Urhobo,  Bulu Owei Fie in Ijaw and Tebuwa Ndun in Kanuri, it is incumbent upon him to assume a leadership role in the movement he advocates. If he genuinely believes that a “war” is required to reclaim Nigeria from the grip of authoritarianism and economic ruin, then he must do more than sound the alarm from the comfort of private conversations or media leaks. It would be a historical misstep for a general to declare the need for a liberation war and then retreat to the rear while ordinary citizens do the fighting. A general, especially one who has ruled Nigeria in uniform and in civilian garb, should not just call for Sabuwar Tafiya. He must lead it. To identify the urgency of a national "war" for liberation yet choose to fight from behind media statements would be a misnomer, particularly for a figure of Obasanjo;s stature. His personal involvement could serve as a powerful moral compass and rallying point for Nigerians who are desperate for real change ahead of 2027. There is a moral and strategic expectation tied to Obasanjo’s own legacy. As a retired general in the Nigerian Army and a two-time civilian president, he is not just an elder statesman; he is a symbol of resistance and national rebirth.

Nigerians still regard Obasanjo as a respected and respectable figure who can convene the broad coalition the country needs: a front that includes political parties, civil society, the youth movement, religious leaders, and the labour movement. If there is to be a “liberation war” in 2027, let Obasanjo mount the platform and lead from the front—not as a candidate, but as a convener, a moral anchor, and a democratic commander-in-chief.

Kwankwaso’s Alleged Defection Rumors and the Trap of the Abuja Syndicate

Recent media reports have circulated rumors that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), may be considering defection to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). While unconfirmed, such rumors are widely believed to be part of a larger strategy by the so-called "Abuja Syndicate", a conglomerate of vested political interests, to weaken opposition coalition efforts and discredit the movement for change by projecting it as "dead on arrival."

Kwankwaso must be strongly cautioned against falling into this calculated trap. His historical standing as a populist leader with a genuine grassroots following would be irreparably damaged should he align with forces widely perceived as responsible for Nigeria’s present economic and political decline.

Defection to the APC at this critical juncture would not only betray the hopes of millions of Nigerians yearning for authentic change, but would also render him complicit in sustaining the status quo. Kwankwaso is therefore urged to resist short-term political gratifications and instead embrace the path of honor, dignity, and patriotism by working with other credible forces including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El Rufai, Prince Adewale Adebayo, Barrister Femi Falana, Comrade S O Z Ejiofor and other reform-minded leaders and organisations like African Liberation Movement, CDHR etc to salvage Nigeria from imminent disaster.

In the spirit of the New Path, the time for political adventurism is over. The time for statesmanship, coalition building, and strategic national rescue is now.

2027: A Defining Moment for Nigeria’s Survival

The stakes are staggering. If Tinubu coasts into 2027 unchallenged due to opposition egos and civil apathy, the cost will be borne by the average Nigerian. Spiraling inflation, mounting debt, elite impunity, and eroding civil liberties will push Nigeria closer to a Venezuela-like dystopia. 2027 is not just another election. It is Nigeria’s last off-ramp before national collapse.

The 2027 elections are not merely another electoral contest; they represent a critical inflection point in Nigeria’s history. Should Nigerians and opposition forces treat the election as "business as usual," they risk condemning the nation to irreversible economic collapse and democratic erosion. In plain terms, failure to reclaim Nigeria’s trajectory in 2027 may plunge the country into a "Venezuelan situation" characterized by economic meltdown, runaway inflation, mass exodus, and social instability.

The opposition must build a unity front with a clear agenda, common candidate, and nationwide structure. The people must abandon WhatsApp illusionism for real organizing. The overreliance on superficial measures such as WhatsApp groups and ephemeral social media campaigns must be called out. Electoral victory cannot be attained by wishful thinking, retweets, or emotive rhetoric alone. Without structured grassroots mobilization, strategic alliances, and concrete political action, opposition activism will remain sterile, achieving little beyond momentary online noise. And for President Obasanjo having lit the fire, he must not walk away from the battlefield.

Final Word to the Opposition and the People

This is a warning from history. When nations waste critical turning points, they invite catastrophe. Let Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso rise above political survival and invest in legacy. Let them channel their energies from righteous frustration to strategic coalition-building and see beyond regional strongholds and join a national cause. Let civil society and the electorate recognize that tweeting is not transformation, and voting without vigilance is complicity.

The road to 2027 must begin today, and it must be different. Otherwise, we risk normalizing an abnormal state and confirming Obasanjo’s bombshell as prophecy fulfilled. Nigeria must act—or prepare to collapse.