Issue No 9
History is an unwavering custodian of human experience. It neither errs nor misleads; rather, it stands as an impartial witness, chronicling the triumphs and failures of those who came before. For those willing to heed its lessons, history provides a roadmap to enduring progress. Yet, for those who ignore its counsel, the past becomes an unrelenting cycle of repeated mistakes. Across different epochs and nations, leaders have risen to power through democratic means only to dismantle the very institutions that facilitated their ascent. The consequence has always been the same: political instability, economic ruin, and social despair.
As
Nigeria navigates its democratic journey, a disturbing pattern emerges—a slow
but deliberate unraveling of the democratic framework. Elections are
increasingly marred by irregularities, opposition voices are stifled, the
judiciary is weakened, and economic governance is sacrificed at the altar of
personal gain. In this trajectory, Nigeria is not unique. History offers ample evidence
of once-promising democracies that fell into disarray due to the unchecked
ambitions of their leaders. From Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe to Turkey’s Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, the erosion of democracy follows a familiar script.
The Art of Electoral Manipulation:
When the Will of the People No Longer Matters
Democracy
thrives on credible elections, but when those in power manipulate electoral
processes, governance shifts from the people’s will to the whims of the ruling
elite. Robert Mugabe understood this well. Once a symbol of liberation in
Zimbabwe, he soon transformed into a power-hungry ruler who manipulated
elections to ensure his prolonged stay in office. His 2008 electoral victory
was marred by violent suppression of the opposition and blatant vote-rigging,
leading to international condemnation (Cheeseman & Klaas, 2018). Similarly,
Alberto Fujimori of Peru ensured that no democratic process could threaten his
rule by controlling electoral commissions and coercing lawmakers into
supporting constitutional changes that extended his tenure (Levitsky &
Ziblatt, 2018).
Nigeria
finds itself in this same treacherous territory. The 2023 general elections,
heralded as an opportunity to strengthen democratic integrity, were instead
plagued by allegations of vote suppression, ballot box snatching, and
compromised electoral technology. The Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC), which had promised transparency, failed to electronically transmit
results as expected, casting doubts on the credibility of the process (Onapajo,
2023). As history has shown, when elections lose their integrity, governance
becomes a charade—one where the citizens participate, but the outcome is
preordained.
The Judiciary Under Siege: The
Executive’s Silent Coup
In
any thriving democracy, the judiciary serves as a check on executive excesses.
However, when leaders undermine judicial independence, democracy loses one of
its most crucial safeguards. Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine understood this
principle well and used it to his advantage. By systematically reshaping
Ukraine’s judiciary to serve his political interests, he ensured that no
opposition movement could legally challenge his authority (Way, 2015). In
Turkey, Erdoğan went a step further. He dismissed thousands of judges and installed
loyalists who rubber-stamped his every move, effectively eroding the rule of
law (Esen & Gumuscu, 2016).
Nigeria’s
judiciary is not immune to such interference. The judiciary’s role as an impartial arbiter of justice has come under serious
scrutiny. Controversial Supreme Court rulings have raised questions about the judiciary’s
independence, particularly regarding the affirmation of electoral victories
despite glaring irregularities (Olaniyan, 2024). Furthermore, institutions such
as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Department of
State Services (DSS), which should operate independently, have increasingly
been used as political tools against opposition figures. If left unchecked,
this trend could spell the demise of judicial integrity, rendering the courts
mere instruments for validating executive overreach.
Silencing of Opposition and the
Decline of Political Pluralism
No
democracy can thrive without a robust opposition and an active civil society.
Yet, the suppression of dissent has become a hallmark of authoritarian-leaning
leaders. Félix Houphouët-Boigny of Ivory Coast was one such figure. Though he
started as a democratic leader, he gradually morphed into an autocrat,
suppressing opposition and transforming the country into a one-party state. His
unchecked rule sowed the seeds of political instability, which, upon his death,
led to civil war (Akindès, 2004).
Nigeria
is increasingly mirroring this pattern. Since assuming office, Tinubu’s
administration has witnessed a worrying crackdown on opposition leaders. For
instance, Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023
election, has repeatedly faced accusations aimed at discrediting his political
standing, including allegations of treasonous remarks (Vanguard, 2024). Similarly,
Atiku Abubakar, the former vice president and PDP’s presidential flagbearer,
has been entangled in legal battles, with state institutions allegedly being
used to undermine his credibility. In 2023, he accused the Tinubu
administration of using the judiciary to frustrate his challenge against the
presidential election results, particularly after the Supreme Court dismissed
his case despite allegations of discrepancies in Tinubu’s academic records
(Premium Times, 2024). Additionally, in October 2023, the Nigerian government,
through the Minister of Information, accused Atiku of attempting to destabilize
the country by refusing to accept the election outcome, a move widely seen as
an effort to discredit him politically (Vanguard, 2023).
Atiku and Obi
Protests
against government policies have been met with heavy-handed responses. In July
2023, security forces violently dispersed a peaceful protest in Lagos against
the removal of fuel subsidies, arresting demonstrators and using tear gas to
silence dissent (The Guardian Nigeria, 2023). Similarly, in Abuja, members of
the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) protesting tuition hikes
were met with police brutality (Sahara Reporters, 2024).
 |
| Nigerians protesting at Gani Fawehinmi Park in Lagos on January 12, 2012 |
The
free press, another pillar of democracy, has also come under threat. In October
2023, the editor of an investigative news platform, Peoples Gazette, was
arrested after publishing a report on government corruption (Daily Trust,
2023). Journalists covering issues such as insecurity and economic hardship
have faced harassment, with some forced into exile to escape persecution.
The
more dissent is stifled, the closer Nigeria inches toward an autocratic model
where only government-approved voices can be heard. If this trend continues,
the country's democratic institutions risk being eroded, leaving little room
for accountability and free expression
Constitutional Manipulations: The
Autocrat’s Playbook
Another
classic strategy in the de-democratization playbook is the alteration of
constitutional frameworks to extend power. Vladimir Putin has mastered this
approach, having rewritten Russia’s constitution multiple times to allow him to
remain in power indefinitely (Gel’man, 2022). In Africa, Nigeria narrowly
escaped this fate when former President Olusegun Obasanjo attempted to push for
a third-term bid, which was ultimately thwarted by public and legislative
opposition (Ojo, 2020).
While
Tinubu has yet to overtly attempt such a constitutional maneuver, the
increasing centralization of executive power and the weakening of institutional
checks suggest a dangerous precedent. Without vigilance, what starts as subtle
executive overreach can evolve into full-blown authoritarianism.
Economic Mismanagement: The High Cost
of Democratic Erosion
Economic
governance and democracy are deeply intertwined. When leaders prioritize
personal enrichment over national progress, economies decline, and citizens
bear the brunt. Mugabe’s Zimbabwe serves as a cautionary tale. His disastrous
land reform policies led to hyperinflation, economic collapse, and widespread
unemployment (Meredith, 2007). Similarly, Turkey’s economic downturn under
Erdoğan has been exacerbated by crony capitalism and unsound economic policies
(Esen & Gumuscu, 2016).
Nigeria
faces a similar crisis. The removal of fuel subsidies, without adequate social
safety nets, has led to increased hardship for millions of Nigerians. Inflation
continues to rise, while government officials remain embroiled in corruption
scandals (Adelakun, 2024). The prioritization of elite interests over national
welfare is a recurring theme in declining democracies, and Nigeria’s current
economic trajectory is a cause for concern.
A Roadmap for Safeguarding Nigeria’s
Democracy
If
history has taught one lesson, it is that democracy, once eroded, is difficult
to restore. To prevent Nigeria from descending into autocracy, urgent steps
must be taken:
1.
Strengthening Democratic Institutions: INEC, the judiciary, and anti-corruption
agencies must be truly independent and free from executive interference.
2.
Ensuring Electoral Integrity: The credibility of Nigeria’s electoral processes
must be restored through transparent and verifiable voting systems.
3.
Protecting Opposition and Civil Liberties: Political dissent and press freedom
must be upheld as fundamental democratic rights.
4.
Resisting Executive Overreach: The legislature must function as an independent
body that checks the excesses of the executive.
5.
Prioritizing Economic Governance: Policies must be people-centered rather than
serving the interests of the political elite.
Conclusion
Nigeria
stands at a critical crossroads, where the very essence of its democracy is
under threat. The choices made today will determine whether the country upholds
the democratic principles fought for over decades or follows the path of
nations that allowed their leaders to erode democratic institutions for
personal or political gain.
The
patterns of de-democratization are clear, and the warning signs are evident.
The suppression of opposition figures, the curtailing of press freedom, and the
excessive use of state power to silence dissent all mirror the early stages of
autocratic rule seen in other nations. History is replete with examples of
democracies that crumbled due to complacency, where citizens and institutions
failed to act until it was too late. From Zimbabwe’s descent under Robert
Mugabe to Venezuela’s democratic decline under Hugo Chávez, the lesson remains
the same—unchecked power, once entrenched, is difficult to reverse.
Nigeria
must not allow history to repeat itself. The responsibility to safeguard
democracy does not rest on the government alone but also on civil society, the
judiciary, the media, and the citizenry. Apathy and silence in the face of
growing authoritarian tendencies will only embolden those seeking to undermine
democratic governance. Nigerians must demand transparency, accountability, and
respect for fundamental rights, ensuring that those in power are reminded that
sovereignty ultimately lies with the people.
The
road ahead is fraught with challenges, but the resilience of Nigeria’s
democratic spirit will be tested by its response. Will the country strengthen
its democratic foundations, or will it succumb to the forces of repression? The
answer lies in the actions taken today, for democracy is not a self-sustaining
system—it must be actively defended, or it risks being lost
History is an unwavering custodian of human experience. It neither errs nor misleads; rather, it stands as an impartial witness, chronicling the triumphs and failures of those who came before. For those willing to heed its lessons, history provides a roadmap to enduring progress. Yet, for those who ignore its counsel, the past becomes an unrelenting cycle of repeated mistakes. Across different epochs and nations, leaders have risen to power through democratic means only to dismantle the very institutions that facilitated their ascent. The consequence has always been the same: political instability, economic ruin, and social despair.
As
Nigeria navigates its democratic journey, a disturbing pattern emerges—a slow
but deliberate unraveling of the democratic framework. Elections are
increasingly marred by irregularities, opposition voices are stifled, the
judiciary is weakened, and economic governance is sacrificed at the altar of
personal gain. In this trajectory, Nigeria is not unique. History offers ample evidence
of once-promising democracies that fell into disarray due to the unchecked
ambitions of their leaders. From Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe to Turkey’s Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, the erosion of democracy follows a familiar script.
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