Issue No 7
The political crisis unfolding in Rivers State between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, is a microcosm of Nigeria’s broader struggles with elite control, ethnic mobilization, and institutional fragility. This battle, driven by power dynamics between the Ijaw and Ikwerre ethnic groups, has the potential to escalate into an ethnic conflict reminiscent of Burundi’s tragic history. The situation poses grave consequences not only for Rivers State but also for the 2027 general elections and Nigeria’s democratic stability.
Framed within elite theory (Mosca, 1939; Mills,
1956) and ethnic mobilization theory (Horowitz, 1985; Young, 1993), this
analysis explores the roots of the crisis, the risk of Rivers becoming a
theater of ethnic war, and the national implications if unchecked political
manipulation and impeachment threats persist.
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| Governor Siminalayi Fubara Governor of Rivers State |
Wike’s
Political Grip and Fubara’s Resistance
Since 1999, Rivers politics has been shaped by a
patron-client system, where outgoing governors attempt to install and control
their successors. Wike, a dominant political figure in the state, sought to
extend his influence through Fubara’s candidacy in 2023. However, Fubara’s
growing independence has triggered resistance from Wike’s camp, leading to a
power struggle manifested in legislative battles, administrative conflicts, and
impeachment threats.
This aligns with elite theory, which argues that
power is concentrated in the hands of a few who manipulate political
institutions to maintain control (Mosca, 1939). Wike represents a dominant
elite trying to preserve his influence, while Fubara embodies a faction seeking
autonomy within the political order. This struggle is not just about governance
but about who controls Rivers State’s resources and political destiny.
Ethnic
Mobilization and the Dangers of Political Manipulation
The crisis has taken an ethnic dimension, with the
Ijaw viewing Fubara as their long-overdue representative in Rivers' highest
office. The Ikwerre elite, who have held power for over two decades, are
perceived as unwilling to relinquish control. Ethnic mobilization theory warns
that when political leaders frame disputes in ethnic terms, they can incite
mass violence and deepen social cleavages (Horowitz, 1985).
This growing ethnic divide is reminiscent of past
conflicts in the Niger Delta, where political grievances translated into armed
resistance. If the Rivers State House of Assembly—dominated by Wike
loyalists—proceeds with impeachment on flimsy grounds, Ijaw militants could
interpret it as an existential threat, leading to violent confrontations and
further destabilization.
Rivers
as a Potential Theater of Ethnic War: Lessons from Burundi
The Burundi Parallel: The unfolding crisis in Rivers
bears striking similarities to Burundi’s 1993-2005 conflict, where ethnicized
political rivalries between the Hutu and Tutsi elites resulted in civil war
(Reyntjens, 1993). When President Melchior Ndadaye, a Hutu, was assassinated by
elements of the Tutsi-led army, it triggered widespread violence, as the Hutu
perceived it as an attack on their political emancipation (Lemarchand, 1994).
Likewise, if Fubara’s impeachment proceeds, the Ijaw
may interpret it as an ethnic coup, leading to mass resistance, retaliatory
attacks, and possible militant resurgence. The Niger Delta Avengers and other
armed groups, which have been dormant, could reactivate, plunging Rivers into
prolonged violence.
Economic
and Governance Collapse
A breakdown of order in Rivers would have dire
consequences for governance and economic stability. The state is a key
oil-producing region, and renewed unrest could disrupt oil production, leading
to national economic strain. Rivers’ previous experiences with political
violence—such as the post-2007 election crisis—demonstrate how elite conflicts
can cripple local governance and service delivery (Osaghae, 1998).
Implications
for the 2027 General Election
1.
South-South
Political Fragmentation
Rivers is the political heartbeat of the
South-South. A prolonged crisis will divide political alliances within the
region, weakening the PDP and creating unpredictability in national politics.
With Wike aligned with the APC and Fubara tied to the PDP, ethnicized conflicts
could disrupt both parties’ organizational structures, creating electoral
uncertainties.
2.
National
Security Threats and Electoral Disruption
A violent crisis in Rivers could destabilize the
2027 election by:
1. Reducing voter turnout due to security concerns.
2. Compromising election integrity as violence may
prevent fair participation.
3. Fueling ethno-political polarization, leading to
increased ethnic-based voting patterns, as observed in Nigeria’s past elections
(Suberu, 2001).
Collier and Hoeffler (2004) argue that electoral
violence often leads to broader national instability, as factions use
insecurity to manipulate outcomes. If Rivers descends into chaos, it could set
a dangerous precedent where ethnic interests override democratic principles in
national elections.
Conclusion:
The Need for Immediate Intervention
Rivers is at a dangerous bend. If not managed
properly, the Wike-Fubara crisis could escalate into a major ethnic conflict,
disrupting governance, the economy, and Nigeria’s electoral stability.
To
prevent a full-scale crisis:
1. A Political Settlement is Urgent: National
stakeholders must facilitate reconciliation between Wike and Fubara, ensuring
power-sharing agreements that preserve stability.
2. Prevent Ethnic Mobilization: Political actors
must refrain from using ethnic narratives to justify their actions, as this can
escalate tensions.
3. Institutional Safeguards Against Arbitrary
Impeachment: The federal government and judiciary must ensure due process in
resolving the impeachment threat to prevent the perception of political
persecution.
4. Engage Local Stakeholders in Peace Talks:
Community and religious leaders should be actively involved in de-escalation
efforts to prevent violent mobilization.
If these measures are not taken, Rivers could spiral
into violence similar to Burundi’s past ethnic wars, with devastating
consequences for Nigeria’s democratic trajectory.
This analysis was written before the Declaration of State of Emergency by the President. Now that the the crisis, has taken this dimension, we hope that the backlash will not consume the entire Rivres state and the Nigerian petro-dollar economy.
STOP PRESS
The
Declaration of Emergency in Rivers State: A Political Power Grab Disguised as
Constitutional Necessity
President
Bola Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State is not merely
a constitutional misstep but a calculated political maneuver to wrest control
of the state from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This move, which suspends
Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, and the elected House of Assembly members,
fundamentally undermines Nigeria’s democratic ethos and sets a dangerous
precedent for federal overreach into state governance.
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| President Bola Tinubu |
Constitutional Overreach and Political Targeting
The
primary justification cited for this drastic action is the political crisis in
Rivers State, particularly the strained relationship between Governor Fubara
and the state House of Assembly. However, this does not warrant a state of
emergency under Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended). A state of
emergency is meant for extraordinary situations such as war, insurrection, or
large-scale breakdown of public order—none of which exists in Rivers State. The
Supreme Court’s ruling on the political impasse, which was selectively
referenced in the President’s speech, did not authorize a state of emergency
but rather called for constitutional adherence.
The
political intent behind this move becomes evident when compared to previous
crises in other states, where the federal government refrained from imposing
emergency rule. For instance, the political instability in Kano, Zamfara, and
Kogi—states did not
elicit such drastic federal intervention. Same could be argued for the entire Eastern region where IPOB held sway for more than two years. President Buhari did not declare State of Emergency in Lagos state during the endSars riots that saw the current president taking refuge outside the state before his returned to make his "I am the Jagaban" statement. This selective application of
constitutional measures signals an attempt to destabilize an opposition-led
government rather than genuine concern for governance and security.
The Misuse of Security Reports to Justify Emergency Rule
A
recurring theme in the justification for this decision is the claim that
militants have been involved in vandalizing pipelines and that the Governor has
failed to respond. However, security challenges in the Niger Delta are not new
and have not previously necessitated emergency rule. The federal government has
the full apparatus of security agencies at its disposal, including the
military, police, and Department of State Services (DSS), to address security
threats without dismantling a constitutionally elected government.
Moreover,
credible security reports contradict the claim that the situation in Rivers
State has deteriorated to the level requiring emergency rule. The Nigerian
Security Tracker (NST), an independent security monitoring tool, has not
recorded any unprecedented rise in violence or insurgency in Rivers State that
would justify such action. If security concerns were indeed the driving force
behind this declaration, similar actions should have been taken in other states
facing more severe threats.
A Clear Strategy to Install an APC-Controlled Government
By
appointing a federal administrator, Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas (Rtd), to
oversee Rivers State, the Tinubu administration has effectively usurped the
political will of the people. This is particularly significant given that
Rivers State, a traditionally stronghold of the People’s Democratic Party
(PDP), saw a shift to the APC during the 2023 presidential election due to the
anti-party activities of Nyesom Wike’s administration. The emergency
declaration ensures that PDP’s foothold is disrupted and provides an avenue for
the APC to assert dominance through backdoor tactics.
A
historical precedent for this strategy can be seen in the 2004 Plateau State
emergency under President Olusegun Obasanjo, where a similar intervention
resulted in long-term federal control of the state’s political machinery. By
suspending all elected officials and appointing an unelected administrator,
Tinubu’s government has effectively nullified the electoral process in Rivers
State, setting a concerning example for future federal-state relations.
Undermining Democratic
Institutions and the Rule of Law
One
of the most dangerous implications of this decision is the erosion of
democratic institutions. The suspension of an entire state government on
politically motivated grounds weakens the credibility of Nigeria’s federal
structure. If left unchecked, this could lead to a dangerous precedent where
the ruling party at the center deploys emergency declarations as a tool to
seize control of opposition-led states.
Furthermore,
the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Rivers crisis did not prescribe a state of
emergency. Instead, it reinforced the constitutional framework within which the
state should operate. By bypassing judicial processes and taking unilateral
action, the federal government has not only overstepped its constitutional
limits but has also cast doubt on its commitment to the rule of law.
Potential Consequences and Resistance
This
politically motivated emergency declaration is likely to trigger legal battles,
with opposition parties and civil society organizations challenging the
decision in court. Given the current constitutional framework, the National
Assembly must ratify the state of emergency within ten days. However, given
APC’s majority in both chambers, this approval is likely to be a mere
formality.
The
move also risks heightening political tensions in Rivers State, as local actors
and regional stakeholders may resist what is perceived as an unconstitutional
takeover. The Niger Delta region has a history of resisting political oppression,
and this decision may reignite old grievances against federal control.
Additionally,
international observers, including the European Union, the United States, and
the African Union, may view this action as a setback for Nigeria’s democratic
credentials. Such scrutiny could impact foreign investment and diplomatic
relations, especially given Nigeria’s position as a regional leader.
Conclusion: A Dark Day for Nigerian Democracy
President
Tinubu’s declaration of emergency in Rivers State is not about restoring peace
and order; it is a strategic power play aimed at neutralizing an opposition
government and installing an APC-controlled administration. The federal
government’s overreach undermines the principles of democracy, federalism, and
the rule of law. If this action is allowed to stand, it will embolden future
administrations to exploit emergency powers for political gain, further
weakening Nigeria’s fragile democratic institutions.
The
people of Rivers State—and indeed all Nigerians—must remain vigilant and resist
any attempt to subvert their democratic rights. The courts, civil society
organizations, and opposition parties must challenge this decision to prevent a
dangerous precedent that could threaten the future of democratic governance in
Nigeria.
Nigeria’s
democracy must not be sacrificed at the altar of political expediency.
Appreciation from Political Panorama with Ola Olateju
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Political Panorama
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