Nigerian Opposition and the Road to 2027: A Historical and Critical Analysis - Ola Olateju

   Political Panorama Issue No 4

The struggle for political power in Nigeria has been shaped by a pattern of opposition miscalculations, internal divisions, and strategic weaknesses that have repeatedly allowed the ruling party to maintain dominance. As the 2027 general elections approach, opposition parties must critically assess their historical missteps and recalibrate their strategies to effectively challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC). Without such introspection, the opposition may once again find itself outmaneuvered by a ruling party that has mastered the art of political consolidation.

Historical Context: Opposition Struggles in Nigeria’s Democratic Evolution

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, opposition parties have struggled to unseat entrenched ruling parties. The People's Democratic Party (PDP), which dominated from 1999 to 2015, faced little effective opposition until the APC emerged from a coalition of smaller parties. The 2015 election, which saw Muhammadu Buhari defeat Goodluck Jonathan, remains a rare instance where the opposition successfully wrested power.

President Bola Tinubu

However, the conditions that enabled APC’s victory in 2015—popular discontent with PDP’s governance, a well-coordinated coalition, and a singular opposition candidate—have not been replicated by the opposition in subsequent elections. The 2019 and 2023 elections exposed the weaknesses of Nigeria’s opposition, ranging from disunity to strategic miscalculations, which ultimately played into the hands of the APC.

The Opposition’s Recurring Missteps

1. Fragmentation and Lack of a Unified Front

A major flaw of Nigerian opposition parties is their inability to unite against the ruling party. Unlike in 2015, when the APC emerged from a grand coalition of opposition forces, the 2019 and 2023 elections were marked by severe opposition fragmentation. Instead of forming a cohesive front, opposition candidates ran on separate platforms, dividing the electorate and reducing their chances of victory.

Atiku Abubakar

The 2023 presidential election exemplified this disunity. Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP) all contested separately, despite calls for an alliance. Their failure to consolidate forces handed an easy victory to the APC’s Bola Tinubu. Political strategist Niccolò Machiavelli once observed, "He who wishes to be obeyed must know how to command." The opposition’s inability to rally behind a single candidate suggests a leadership vacuum and an unwillingness to make necessary compromises for the greater goal of unseating the ruling party.

2. Failure to Offer a Compelling Alternative Narrative

Another recurring weakness of the opposition is its inability to present a compelling alternative vision to the electorate. Merely criticizing the ruling party’s failures is insufficient if voters do not perceive the opposition as a credible alternative. In 2015, the APC effectively capitalized on public dissatisfaction with the PDP, presenting Buhari as a disciplined leader who would fight corruption and insecurity. However, the opposition in 2019 and 2023 largely failed to craft a similarly persuasive message.

As Noam Chomsky notes, "The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." The opposition’s reliance on broad criticisms without offering clear policy solutions has left many voters skeptical of their capacity to govern differently.

3. Strategic and Logistical Weaknesses

Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi

 Election victories require not just popular support but also robust electoral strategies, grassroots mobilization, and efficient vote protection mechanisms. The APC, having mastered the machinery of Nigerian elections, has consistently outmaneuvered the opposition in these areas. In contrast, the opposition has repeatedly shown organizational weaknesses, failing to secure key political structures, build strong grassroots networks, or effectively monitor the electoral process. 

In 2023, opposition parties underestimated the ruling party’s strategic use of incumbency, including its influence over state institutions and electoral processes. A major miscalculation was the neglect of the APC’s well-established rigging machine, which includes:

Mahmood Yakub: INEC Chairman

• The Electoral Body (INEC): The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has been widely criticized for its handling of elections, particularly for logistical failures and alleged complicity in vote rigging. The opposition failed to exert sufficient pressure to ensure transparency in the collation and transmission of results, despite early warnings of potential glitches. 
• The Security Agencies: The opposition has historically overlooked the role of security forces in elections, failing to counteract their often-partisan role in voter suppression and electoral manipulation. In previous elections, security operatives have been accused of intimidation, harassment, and aiding electoral malpractices in favor of the ruling party.
• The Judiciary: The courts, expected to be the last line of defense for electoral integrity, have instead been perceived as instruments of political influence. The opposition has not invested in legal preparedness to challenge questionable judicial decisions or prevent post-election manipulations that often favor the ruling party.

To avoid another electoral debacle, the opposition must closely monitor these institutions through technology, technical expertise, and strong resistance groups capable of preventing vote perversion. As Sun Tzu famously stated in The Art of War, "Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." Without a proactive approach to countering electoral fraud, the opposition will continue to fight from a position of weakness.

4. Absence of a Strong Political Brand and Ideology

In advanced democracies, opposition parties distinguish themselves through clear ideological positions. However, in Nigeria, opposition parties often lack strong ideological foundations, making them appear as mere vehicles for personal political ambitions rather than champions of defined policies.

Peter Obi

Peter Obi’s Labour Party in 2023 generated initial momentum among urban youths and first-time voters, but the party’s lack of a deep-rooted national structure and coherent ideology weakened its impact. Similarly, the PDP, Nigeria’s oldest opposition party, has struggled to redefine itself after losing power in 2015. French philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau aptly stated, "The strongest is never strong enough to be always the master, unless he transforms strength into right, and obedience into duty." The opposition’s failure to build a lasting political identity has contributed to its electoral struggles.

5. Over-Reliance on Ethnic and Regional Sentiments

Nigerian politics is deeply shaped by ethnic and regional allegiances. While the APC has successfully built a national coalition that balances regional interests, opposition parties have often failed to do the same. The 2023 election saw Peter Obi dominate in the Southeast and Atiku Abubakar perform well in the North, but neither was able to build a truly national coalition that could challenge the APC. 

Rabiu Kwankwaso

This failure to expand beyond ethnic strongholds plays into the ruling party’s advantage. As Nelson Mandela wisely noted, "A winner is a dreamer who never gives up." If opposition parties continue to rely on narrow regional support bases rather than building broad national alliances, they will struggle to unseat the APC in 2027.

The Road to 2027: What Must Change?

For the opposition to stand a realistic chance of winning in 2027, it must correct past mistakes and adopt a more strategic approach. Some key steps include:

1.     Forging a Strong Coalition: Opposition parties must learn from the APC’s 2015 coalition strategy and present a united front. Fragmentation will only guarantee another APC victory.

2.     Crafting a Clear and Compelling Message: The opposition must articulate a vision that resonates with Nigerians beyond mere criticism of the ruling party.

3.     Strengthening Electoral Strategy and Vote Protection: It is not enough to win public sentiment; the opposition must also secure votes through strategic election monitoring and mobilization, particularly by countering electoral fraud.

4.     Building a Sustainable Political Brand: A party that lacks a strong ideology and identity will struggle to inspire long-term loyalty among voters.

5.     Expanding Beyond Ethnic and Regional Boundaries: To win nationally, the opposition must appeal to diverse constituencies and avoid being confined to specific regions.

For Nigeria’s opposition, 2027 may be their defining moment. The question remains: will they seize it?

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